中文题目：区域创新生态系统生态位适合度的评价与预测——不同优化灰色模型的比较评价英文题目：evaluating and forecasting the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems: A comparative evaluation of different optimized grey models摘要：尽管区域创新生态系统的发展是国家和区域发展的关键驱动力，但很少有研究基于当前的生态位理论来评估区域创新生态系的生态位适合度。
本研究试图通过构建基于生态位理论的区域经济实体生态位适合度评价指标体系和评价模型，并通过评估2010年至2019年30个中国区域经济实体的生态位适合性，来填补研究空白。
结果表明，首先，从2010年到2019年，中国RIE的利基适应度总体较低。
我们认为，这一发现的一个可能原因可能是中国不同RIE的发展不平衡，以及中国创新社区和生境生态位的滞后发展。
其次，我们的研究结果表明，RIE的发展需要来自不同生态因素的更高水平的支持。
此外，使用灰色模型GM（1，1）-等预测模型预测RIE的生态位适合度的研究仍然很少，尽管预测RIEs的生态位适应度可以为制定创新政策提供很好的参考。
因此，本研究旨在填补这一研究空白，除了上述分析外，还建立了一个优化的灰色模型FMCGM（1,1）-来预测2021-2025年中国RIE的生态位适合度。
我们使用FMCGM（1，1）得到的结果表明，首先，在2021-2025年期间，中国RIE的生态位适应度将逐渐提高；其次，中国RIEs的发展模式将从主要由资源生态位和技术生态位支持的发展模式转变为通过不同生态因素更平衡的支持模式。
总之，本研究为评估和预测区域经济实体的生态位适合度提供了新的方法，不仅有助于区域经济实体和灰色预测模型的研究，也为区域经济实体治理提供了新见解。
Abstract:There is little research that evaluates the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems (RIEs) based on current niche theories, even though RIE development is a key driver of national and regional development. This study seeks to address the gap in research by constructing an evaluation index system and an evaluation model for the niche fitness of RIEs based on niche theories and by assessing the niche fitness of 30 Chinese RIEs for the years 2010 to 2019. The results show, first, that from 2010 to 2019, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs overall was low. We suggest one possible reason for this finding might be the imbalanced development of different Chinese RIEs, as well as the lagging development of China's innovation community and habitat niche. Second, our findings show that RIE development needs a higher level of support from different ecological factors. Moreover, studies that predict the niche fitness of RIEs using forecasting models such as the grey model-GM (1,1)-remain scarce, even though forecasting the niche fitness of RIEs could provide a good reference for formulating innovation policies. Therefore, this study, aiming to fill this research gap, also establishes an optimized grey mod-el-FMCGM (1,1)-to forecast the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs for the years 2021-2025, in addition to the analysis discussed above. Our results obtained by using FMCGM (1,1) show, first, that in the period 2021-2025, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs will gradually increase, and second, that the development mode of Chinese RIEs will change from one mainly supported by the resource niche and the technology niche into a more balanced support mode via different ecological factors. To sum up, this study, presenting new methods to evaluate and forecast the niche fitness of RIEs, not only contributes to the research of RIE and grey forecasting models but also provides new insights for RIE governance.